As Intel goes, so goes the Tablet market

I was listening to Intel’s IDF keynote webcasts and one thing struck me: Intel is leading the Tablet market. Yeah, Microsoft came up with the Tablet OS, develops key Tablet apps, and is nudging along the Tablet ecosystem, but when you think about it–really think about it–Intel is in charge. Microsoft is just going along for the ride.

Before you fall off the couch laughing (I assume you’re reading this on your Tablet, of course), here’s my reasoning: We all know that although the Tablet PC is going relatively strong right now, it’s had a bumpy road. And thinking back, even though Microsoft’s Service Pack 2 and its new Tablet Input Panel has made a huge difference in terms of the usability of the Tablet PC, it’s really not the reason the Tablet is still in existance today. Not even the Microsoft marketing machine can claim success. The Tablet PC owes its survival to one thing: Intel’s Centrino.

In fact, most everyone I know divides the Tablet market into “second-generation” Tablets and all the rest. (Yeah, I know some companies claim third+ generation, but they’re trying to buck the Intel force. It’s standalone marketing spin that’s not going to work.) What’s so special about the “second-gen” Tablets? They’re Centrino based. They have much better battery utilization. Desktop-grade performance. Better integration and reliabilty of WiFi (in most). Better thermal management. And more. All courtesy of Intel and all features that make Tablets more useful–really useful.

As the IDF webcasts spell out, Centrino has been wildly successful. In just a little over a year, almost all the notebooks and Tablets are Centrino based. Yes, there are some low cost AMD systems, but only a few.

Now let’s talk marketing. Intel spends tens of millions (or is it hundreds?) marketing its Centrino brand. Is the Microsoft’s Tablet efforts in the same ballpark? I doubt it. It’s clear to see how Intel’s marketing can sway consumers, analysts, press, etc much more than Microsoft’s. Why does this matter? Because they’re both marketing the same story–use computers in more places and in more ways. Unfortunately for the Tablet PC specifically, Microsoft’s marketing message of a “better, mobile computer” gets drowned out by Intel’s. Microsoft has to say that the Tablet is even a better mobile experience. But this gets ahead of the market for most. People are just now transitioning from desktops to notebooks. This year, for instance, more notebooks were sold than desktops–in large part due to Intel’s success with Centrino. The Tablet is an easier story for those who already have notebooks and see that they need even more flexibilty and hence are open to Tablets.

Simply put, the Tablet PC is riding Centrino’s mobile coat tails.

Now what about the future? According to the webcasts, WiMAX is Intel’s next big push. WiMAX will give us all wireless broadband. Now only if we can convince Intel to target its first WiMAX allotments to the Tablet community. That would give the Tablet community something it could really market to its advantage. And it would be something that Intel would push rather than delegating Tablets to photos in PowerPoint slides at tradeshow events.