Will there be a dot-com crash in 2008?
Greg Linden speculates on whether we will see another 2000 style dot-com dust up this new year. I don’t think so. Here’s why.
First, let me clarify that I expect there will be consolidation throughout the social networking and “Web 2.0″ sites. It’s perfectly natural and predictable. And for those companies that don’t make it, I’m sure the employees and partners will feel like they are in the midst of an all out panic. But overall I expect things to go fairly well for the online industry.
Over the last couple years we saw how the print media folks moved in quite profitably. They’ve found a home on the web and aren’t going anywhere. Online news and commentary is here to stay. And there’s plenty of money to go around for at least the top tier.
What I expect next will be the growth of video and other higher-broadband content throughout 2008 and beyond. We’ll see it on our well-connected notebooks. We’ll see it on our cell phones. We’ll see it everywhere. And with this growing content segment we’ll see advertisers and content creators flock.
Yes, the money may be a bit of a canabilizing shell game, but it’ll lead to real earnings and real winners for some. 2008 will be a landmark year in that sense. Big YouTube and even Dave Winer’s fledgling Flickr picture pusher are only a sliver of what’s to come.
Well, to be realistic, we might not appreciate this content transition for a couple years down the road, but it’s coming. We’ll be more connected, with richer content, and we’ll use it and enjoy it like it’s always been around.
Schools will broadcast their classes more. Copyright issues aside. Creatives will inspire us with their content. News will be coming and going at our fingertips. And new networks will tie these efforts together to make them easier and better to access and interact with. It’s the next logical step. Richer maps, richer weather reports, richer news, richer learning. I can’t wait.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Hmmm…bad signs today: http://tinyurl.com/27w4vn . 5% unemployment and a talking head calling the jobs report “unambiguously negative.” On top of higher energy prices, the housing downturn and the associated credit crisis, there’s lots not to like in the current state of the economy. That doesn’t necessarily mean that a ton of web 2.0 companies will tank, but I don’t expect to see lots of new funds being freed up for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if more than a couple tank pretty spectacularly. That said, I don’t know that you can really call that a crash because I don’t recall seeing lots of 2.0 IPOs; the end game of choice is to get gobbled up by a big media sugar daddy a la Myspace. A bunch of VCs and angel investors losing money probably won’t have the same kind of impact that the 2000 crash did. The bad bit is that if there is a pull back, VC money will probably dry up for a while.
Whew, that’s a wall of text…sorry. In any case, if some of the Silicon Alley wunderkinds get their comeuppance then at least I’ll have something to revel in. It’s true, I’m a bitter, bitter person.