Incremental Blogger

At this year’s BookExpo America, evidently there was quite a bit of talk about the growing acceptance by consumers of electronic books.

It’s easy to see this happening. In part because of the relative expense of the books themselves.

I think we’re witnessing a transformation in pricepoint scale as much as anything else–somewhat akin to the introduction of the paperback.

What’s also interesting here is that I think we’re likely to see the publishers squeeze out the middlemen as electronic books grow in popularity. This is what happened to the computer resellers over the last 10 years as manufacturers decided to sell direct and within the music industry as more and more people wanted electronic access to their music.

I see the most justifiable switch occuring in education–particularly higher ed where book costs are through the roof. It’s not uncommon to find books over $100 a piece. Same goes for many proceedings and the like.

Now you could argue that the high prices are due to the relatively small market sizes and the actual cost of the printed book is minimal. True. But I think by going electronic and reducing the costs of the books, the market size will grow and we’ll see an even larger total market. Maybe the total numbers will never quite be like they were, but it’ll take fewer people to sustain the businesses and profit from them. So overall it’ll be a net gain.

Along these lines, the days of the school book store as we know it are numbered. They’ll still exist as campus convenience stores, but not as book stores per se. The publishers should ask themselves: Why are they giving so much profit in each book to someone else? They shouldn’t be. This is what the publishers should be focusing on, not the physical changes to the books themselves and electronic rights and the like.

It’s funny how some industries understand how this works and some don’t.

At today’s OLPC Media event, Nicholas Negrponte announced concept designs for the next generation device.

Wade Roush is blogging the event here and I’ve borrowed one of his photos of the proposed OLPC 2, shown below.

The small device will boast two touch screens that can be used as a two-page book, as a notebook-style keyboard/display combination, or a horizontal/slate mode.

Of course, this is a concept design and who knows what a shippable device will really look like. We all know how far Haiku got, for instance.

But I think this is going a good direction.

Very nice.

Laptopmag.org is at the event too and has some more pictures and a video of part of Negroponte’s presentation.

What I find so fascinating about the discussion around the recently released Amazon Kindle book reader and devices like the iPhone is that people are generally open to the slate form factor….and touch.

This is a trend that I hope Tablet designers are paying attention to. Why? Because for the most part over the last couple years it appears that the Tablet PC designers and marketers have resolved that the slate form factor (for the most part) wasn’t where the majority of the market potential was and “convertibles” were the “right” form factor, I think they got it wrong and these new devices are going to be teaching them a lesson.

Microsoft had it right with its prototype orange Tablet PC and better yet with its Haiku UMPC design. Even NEC’s LitePad was a smart design–among others. Generally, the thinner, the better. The easier to use, the better. I’d also add the cheaper, the better. To me the OEMs and Tablet PC marketing has lead the Tablet PC to a nameless, homogeneous, fairly uninspired collection of notebooks.

I don’t simply want a better 1997 notebook. I want a better device for 2007. I want to be connected. I want to have instant access. I want to be able to share. I want to be able to interact. I want to be learn, express, explore, inspire, be inspired, make money, purchase things, and above all enjoy my life a little bit more, wherever I am.

Maybe I have to wait until 2017. We’ll see. But I’m confident that one day, we’ll look back and realize that this is exactly what technology has given us–or should I say we have given each other.

What a disappointment.

I ordered a Kindle today on Amazon and the site clearly said “in stock.” So I asked for over night shipping so I could play with it over the holiday.

But wait.

Tonight, however, Amazon’s tracking service says the Kindle won’t ship until next week. Clearly the device is out of stock. In addition to the fact that I feel like this is a bait and switch in terms of availability, I’m disappointed that Amazon won’t let me change the shipping at this time.

The Amazon site informs me: “We are preparing these items for shipment and this portion of your order cannot be canceled or changed.” Yeah, right. If it was shipping tomorrow I might buy this. But next week? It’s more likely the device is still to be manufactured. “We” aren’t preparing the device. The manufacturer is.

Yeah, I’m bummed out.

Update: I emailed Amazon. I’m none too happy.

According to this thread on Amazon the Kindle sold out in 5-1/2 hours. Who knows if we’re talking about 200 units or 1,000. All I know is that I clicked on the button to purchase and it said in stock and then a couple hours later it said my order had been delayed. (I just re-read my oreder confirmation and it had the delayed date too. So maybe I should have refreshed the main order page before ordering and it might have said out of stock. I didn’t think I was that long on it though.) If I can count right I placed my order somewhere around the 5+ hour mark. I’m not sure when the clock started though. So my guess is the website hadn’t been updated yet when I made my purchase to indicate that it was sold out. If I’d seen that I would have waited to purchase one. I know how these manufacturing dates can slip and no way I want to play that game. Why do I keep having these shipping problems with Amazon?

Update: Amazon emailed me and apologized for the ordering problem. They mentioned that during a short time that the product availability listed on their order page lagged the actual availability. Sounds like a programming problem to me–and one that should be addressed. I don’t think it’s acceptable. They can track their numbers. And when the numbers get low they can put a “limited availability” warning on the page. Simple as that.

I love this quote that appeared in CNet from Jeff Bezos about Amazon’s new Kindle eBook reader:

“But even though the development of Kindle took three years, Bezos said, it still couldn’t be entirely perfect. “We never did figure out how to do virtual book signings,” he said. Nevertheless, the Amazon chief executive reiterated that the book is due for a 21st-century makeover. ”

Seems to me Amazon could still have book signings in person—if the device support ink.

Today’s news is about Amazon’s announcement of their first eBook reader, code-named Kindle. The $400 device offers a black and gray reading experience in a relatively small package–all connected to the Internet via EVDO. The device supposedly is set to last 30 hours on a a single charge, which gives plenty of reading time.

Unfortunately it sounds like the device is going to be rather closed from a content standpoint. You’ll have to pay $9.99 per book and $1 to read a handful of select newspapers and blogs each month. Ah, the old subscription model. Here we go again.

Like the UMPC before it, the trick I think to get these devices off the ground is to offer packages–not just devices. Unfortunately the UMPC didn’t take this route and was sold al a carte. Sounds like the Kindle is taking the same approach: Here’s your hardware; pay for it and then buy some content when you have time. Nope, that’s not the way to sell these devices to the mass market. Instead, give me a perceived good deal. Sell the books at $2 each–down at the book club rate. Provide bundled content that inspires when you first turn on your new purchase. Give access to already free online content. And above all make sure the first time experience is top notch.

I haven’t seen one of these devices yet, but I’m quite curious to give one a go. I doubt I’ll buy one though. I’d rather put the $400 into an Eee or an XO and see what apps I can write for them.

I think Jeremy Toeman is correct. Amazon will be fortunate to sell $50K of these in a year, but the number is reasonable. I hope they do it. It wouldn’t give earth shattering revenue, but it might just be enough to keep their feet in the water and iterating on the concept. Then eventually they might hit upon a device that really sells well.

The Kindle, I’m guessing, is not going to get the Chumby love at this stage–except for heavy readers. Hopefully that’ll be enough to keep it going, but I’m not too sure.

Maybe things will change once people get their hands on them. It might depend on how closed they are.