Incremental Blogger

Look how far we’ve all grown with the web over the last 15 years, since its birth. Amazing. Think in terms of people looking up information or how people keep in contact or how people track the news or the time they spend watching TV versus reading the news or how people decide to buy or do buy. It’s quite amazing how fast and far the web has impacted our lives. But as Tim Berners Lee–the co-creator of the world wide web points out, this is only the beginning. The web is in its infancy.

What might come next? As I’ve blogged about several times before, I see a growth in the amount of information we publish not constructed from words we type into an editor, but that gathered from sensors, which will give us an opportunity to automatically retain more of the context of the information and hence make it more discoverable and valuable later–not just by us, but by the computer. Yes, the computer will become even more of our coworker and companion on the web than it is today helping us to organize, collect, and communicate, and distribute what we want. We’ve only seen the beginning.

I also see that simultaneously as we push more and more content to the web, making it bigger and bigger, we’ll also see the web integrate into our lives in smaller and smaller ways. We’ll see connection points to the web that previously we would have considered too complicated and combersome to create. This will reach into cars, phones, radios, cameras, televisions, and so on. The trends are already there for all of these, setting a strong trend for the next 15 years.

I think we have a long way to go to transpose several publishing businesses to the web. They all have established business models that are unfortunately holding them and us back. Whether it’s music, movies, books, or proceedings from a conference, or the conference itself, we all need to work towards spreading more content, further. We will all benefit. How we use this content will expand too. For instance, I can see where if professional organizations unlock their control of conference proceedings and manuscripts, we’ll see an explosion of professional content impacting us all. Currently the print-and-publish oriented model is too locked down, too controlled. It shouldn’t be. Some schools are beginning to adapt to the way it should be, such as MIT’s online experiments with classroom content. I think their direction is good although I wonder where the sweet spot will be. The fact is simple: the economics is changing whether they want it or not. It’s going to happen. Which side of evolution do you want to be on?

There are lots of people linking this morning to a video in which Walt Mossberg talks about the possible future of TV on the Internet, bandwidth in the US, and yes, the iPhone. While everyone seems to be all excited about Walt Mossberg’s prediction that a 3G iPhone is emminent, I find his words on bandwidth issues in the US much more on target and important.

This is a big issue.

It’s not just about bandwidth to watch TV as he talks about. We need real bandwidth to enable new uses of video streams. We need the bandwidth over landlines. We need to bandwidth over the air. Unfortunately the limited model we’re using so far is only going to get us so far. This is one reason I was so hoping Google–and for that matter Intel and Microsoft–would step in with the recent spectrum auction. We need more competition. We need to spur innovation.

Walt Mossberg is proposing that the government step in because bandwidth and view it as something important to the nation like the highway system is. I’m not so sure if this the way to go, but I agree with his focus on the importance. Done well it will enable a new wave of innovation and businesses.

One additional area that Walt doesn’t get into and is also important is on how wireless carriers are charging for bandwidth.

First, the regulate it way to much–excluding this or that use. They shouldn’t. Broadcasting a low-quality video stream should not be “against the rules.” And what if you want to “serve up content” from your cell phone? Why not?

Second, the rates are way too high–and the pricing model is biased towards one plan for one device per person. This is become more and more of a problem, especially as MIDs and other devices make their way into the marketplace. They will have connectivity, along with your notebook and cell phone. So what are you going to do, buy three separate 2-year broadband contracts, one for each device? You’ve got to be kidding. Not only would it become a management nightmare, people aren’t going to afford it.

If I were Intel I’d be doing everything in my power to solve the bandwidth power. They’ve dabbled a bit, as Google has, but they’re not stepping in far enough. It’s a big deal, because it’s going to throttle back their potential sales if they leave things the way they are.

People are going to purchase fewer connected devices, because they won’t be able to afford to connect them.

Here’s where Walt Mossberg might be correct. If the government steps in and opens things up, it would be a huge shot into the arm for connected devices. We’d see a plethora of new businesses and a bunch of new rising stars. So maybe he’s right.

I sure wish Microsoft, Google, and so on would lead in this area more. It’s time to ruffle some feathers.

All weekend long I saw Twitter and Twitter message talking about impending market turmoil and a recession in the US. And this got me thinking. How might a further economic downturn affect web services, such as Google Doc? After 10-minutes of head banging, I come away with the view that these types of services will do even better. Why? Because they have lower costs to entry and are cheaper to maintain.

Does this mean Office is going to slide into oblivion over the next couple of years. Absolutely not. However, an economic shakeup is very likely to shake up the “PC” market further.

As much as I love developing dekstop-style apps, experiences will keep moving online and onto smaller and smaller devices–both which require rethinking of what a good app is.

Steve Rubel argues that the future is not in web sites, but rather web services. He’s got it partially right.

The future is in online content that’s not just human friendly, but computer friendly.

Content found on most web sites is more geared towards the human than the computer. Hence, they’ll be the first to fade as online technologies improve. Web services, go the right direction, because they are more computer consumable. However, this is only the beginning.

We’ll see more and more “services” that find the sweet spot between providing content for humans and computers. Exactly where it is depends on what is being made available and how it can be used.

There’s no doubt in my mind, though, that computers are becoming more important as consumers of online content–if not more so.