Incremental Blogger

The WorldWide Telescope project from Microsoft Research was announced yesterday at TED. Looks quite impressive. A download will be available in a couple months for free at http://worldwidetelescope.org/.

The app sounds like it’s going to be aimed at virtual tours of space, but I hope as it evolves it goes further. I’d really like to see the idea of “real-time” photos being merged in. So that as a lunar eclipse occurs (visible from wherever on earth) or as a comet passes by–I could jump to a program like this to watch rather than contemplate a 2 hour trip away from city lights to try to get a glimpse of it. I think this could also encourage a lot of amateur photographers if their photos could somehow be melted in too.

Robert Scoble promises a much better demo than the TED attendees got. I look forward to it.

The other day Bill Gates gave a speech to Stanford engineering students in which he talked about Tablet PCs, touch, and other devices “natural interfaces.”

From his speech, which you can read online at the link above: 

“You’re starting to see the beginnings of a change to a broad range of interaction techniques I call natural user interface. You see it in the 3D controller that the Wii has. You see it in the touch that the iPhone has. You see it in products like Microsoft Surface where we have cameras that can look at any gesture, any object that’s appearing, and seeing what you’re doing. You see it in RoundTable that sees who’s in the room and decides who’s speaking by taking these multiple camera feeds….We now have the power to perform natural user interface.

A form factor that I’m a big believer in, that I’m excited to make sure we keep investing in, to drive it so it’s attractive to the mainstream, is the tablet device. This is where you can read off the screen, that it’s light, cheap, long battery life; eventually a replacement for paper-based textbooks.

My daughter goes to a school where they use that Tablet PC, and they use the pen, and they’re very adept at it, and it’s amazing to see how they kind of learn in a different way, because they have that tool.

There’s still a lot of work to be done to get that down to the say several hundred dollars and the lightness and battery life that we need, but that is absolutely coming. It’s a fundamental tool that will change the consumption of learning material, and even in the office place will be the device that you have as you go off to meetings.”

Yes, Bill Gates is keeping up the vision of lower cost Tablets–especially for education. I hope there are some exciting things to come in the new future. With Intel’s next-gen, low-power processors we might begin to see all-day Tablets designed for education come to the forefront.

I was also glad to hear Bill Gates talk about touch surfaces as more than just the Surface computer:

“We now talk not just about computers on the desk but computers in the desk, because we can recognize what you’re putting there, and let you touch and expand things. Your desk will just be a horizontal surface display, your whiteboard will just be a vertical surface display. So, the ability there to take business information or project schedules and touch and manipulate and see those things, and then have a portion of it that’s a videoconference with another person where you’re working together and interacting, that will just be commonplace. When that’s cheap, people will go to that, and we need a whole new generation of software that can interact and use those things.”

He’s exactly right. Although I’d quibble with him a bit on some of this technology. There are already touch capable surfaces on the market that more and more schools and businesses are using, yet “touch” as a technology concept hasn’t been brought together into one cohesive model in Windows. I see this as a glaring missing opportunity. Touch as implemented in Surface is great, but there are many touch concepts that are almost identical in touch displays too. They need to all be brought together at the software level. You can tell it’s not there yet because all of the hardware companies are doing their own thing. This doesn’t help the software community. For these technologies to really catch on it’s not going to just be about cost, the software has to become more accessible and plentiful too.

When it comes to mobility, several Tablet PCs have led the way. Remember the NEC LitePad? Lightyears ahead of the competition. But it disappeared. Why? For many of the reasons it was so good: It was super thin. It was super light. It didn’t waste weight on an internal CD/DVD player. Its processor was a miser, which helped save precious battery life.

Unfortunately, there were many voices online and offline that talked down designs like this. I heard reps from Best Buy argue, for instance, that no one wanted a system without a CD player. I argued it was much about education. People needed to see how things were migrating to the Internet–changing how systems were going to be used–and didn’t you want to be part of the future?

Of course, it’s true that some things have changed slowly. There isn’t as much online content as soon as I had expected. That’s changing now though. And opinions have been slow to change too.

Well, I see both making a move–and both are in large part courtesy of Apple. Yes, Apple. First, the success of iTunes is helping the content creators see a possible different future. There’s more room to go here, however, but things are getting better. My guess is that within the next year or so TV networks, major studios, and music providers will all realize that they can relax and stream content online–with ads–and make more money. Not less.

Anyway, there’s another part of this equation that’s changing too and that’s the acceptance of trimmed down machines. Intel is going this way with its processors, sacrificing performance for battery life. We are in a performance lull, which is benefiting the competitive landscape of mobile systems.

But it’s not really Intel that is persuading people that mobility is good. It’s Apple and its new Air. When the Air was first launched, there was much criticism. No CD/DVD. Few connectors. Limited battery capacity. Not enough horsepower. However, some realized that these were the design tradeoffs that a good mobile system is probably going to have. If you want a faster, loaded system, go elsewhere. There are plenty of machines to choose from. Well, it appears that this latter group is wining the conversation war.

I’m reading more and more about people proudly showing off their new Air laptops with resounding acceptance.  People like the lightness, the sleekness, the accessibility. The other stuff–you know the high performance stuff–is just not needed in this type of computer.

Yes, the tide it turning.

And my guess is that as thin and mobile become more “in” in the Apple world, so will it be in the Tablet space. And maybe, just maybe Tablets will make it back into retail. They’ll become cool for students to own. They’ll become acceptable as a lead laptop. The market will grow.

It’s unfortunate that Microsoft and its partners had to wait for Apple to fix this marketing problem, but it appears to be doing just that. Better late than never. And better Apple than no one else.

It’s an interesting lesson–at least in terms of what made marketing sense over the last few years: The big voices that needed convincing online were the journalists (who have led much of the Web 2.0 growth by the way–so by definition and by monetary gain they’ve been the leaders) and the young early adopters. Both groups have disproportionate voices online. At least for the last five years or so you couldn’t gain much success without their acceptance. The Tablet PC convinced a few, but not many. And–at least in my view–as Tablet designs went sideways and started becoming more like market followers than leaders–it lost more and more possible converts. It’s true, these designs became more acceptable to institutional buyers, but they didn’t help to persuade the online voice, which was needed in order to grow greater market acceptance.

Now the next five years may need a different marketing recipe. As the next generation of online innovation occurs, new powerful voices will emerge and maybe they’ll marginalize this 2.0 generation of trendsetters–we’ll have to see. But either way, I think we’re finally at the point where Tablets can actually be efficiently and successfully marketed.

The Yahoo layoffs yesterday have me wondering: Is this really a good thing for Microsoft’s proposed acquisition? I don’t think so–especially if Google becomes the talent beneficiary.

This isn’t exactly going the way of Borland–where the talent slowly migrated to Microsoft. There’s no doubt Microsoft has picked up some amazing people over the years, but there’s quite a bit of Bay Area magic too and acquiring Yahoo was one way of bringing these people on board. However, if the acquisition gets more contentious, it may not turn out as beneficial to Microsoft as they once planned.

I wonder, for instance, what Jerry Yang might bring to Live. With Ray Ozzie navigating the enterprise direction and Jerry Yang overseeing the “consumer” side, this could be very interesting.

But the talent has to reach down to all levels and with a vigorous battle over an extended period of time, Yang is probably out and key talent will simply forgo the drama and go elsewhere–aka Google or some startup. Microsoft should hope people choose the latter–because that way they are essentially still in the market–a much less expensive one at that.

Aren’t negotiations fun?

Long time Microsoft Tablet team member and now MSDN/Windows developer center owner, Eliot Graff, is blogging. No idea if he will be blogging about Tablet PCs, but he does include the term in his title and tags. I’ll be watching to see if any good tidbits appear in his postings.

Welcome to the blogosphere!

I think I’ve found my favorite way to browse the Tablet PC/UMPC conversations list: on an iPhone.

My first stab at it was less than satisfying. The page was too small. Turns out there was an easy fix. All we had to do was add the following meta tag to each html page, which tells Safari how to scale the page in relation to size of the screen:

<meta name=”viewport” content=”width=320″/>

With this simple addition, pages now scale nicely so that by default the text is readable. I just tried taking some pictures of the iPhone showing the conversations list, but I don’t have a good setup yet, so instead I’m using the iPhoneTest.com iPhone emulator here and taking screenshots from it. (Be sure to use the Safari browser for best results.)

Here’s the Tablet PC list as of this evening much like it appears on the actual iPhone:

The Tablet PC conversation list is currently the default page on the server, but it’s also available as: http://www.thredr.com/tabletpc.html.

What’s really cool and convenient is setting up a home-screen icon for the page so you can get to it with a single tap after powering on the iPhone. Here’s how to do it:

1. Open the Safari browser from the home screen by tapping on the Safari icon.
2. Tap on the url edit box in the browser and enter:
http://www.thredr.com/tabletpc.html.
3. Then tap on the plus sign at the bottom of the screen and in the pick list that appears select the “Add to Home Screen” option.
4. You will then be asked to give this bookmark a name. I use “Tablet PC,” but any short name will do.

That’s it. Now when you go to the home screen you’ll see an extra icon that looks like a bit of zoomed out text with the bookmark name that you entered in the last step.

Now when you want to check what’s going on in the Tablet/UMPC world, you just pick up your iPhone, wake it up and tap on your custom icon. This brings up Safari with the conversations list ready to scroll through. Did I mention it’s addicting to use your fingers to flick through lists on the iPhone? Well, it is. At least for me.

Now as I’ve mentioned before, we’re working on a couple other custom micro-conversation lists too. There’s one that tracks Apple talk at http://www.thredr.com/apple.html. It looks like this on the iPhone:

As you can see in this screenshot, the conversation threader supports YouTube videos. When one appears you can tap on the link to watch it–although on the iPhone not all videos are available because they have to be re-encoded for the iPhone video format. There’s no Flash as of yet on the iPhone.

Well, here’s one other list that I have added to my iPhone home screen: http://www.thredr.com/msdev.html. It tracks a wide variety of Microsoft-oriented developers. (We still have many more to add to the watch list, but there are some good ones already.) Anyway, what better way to monitor what’s going on with Microsoft developers than on an iPhone :-).

What makes the iPhone so great for checking a list like this? It’s quick and easy to get to it. Waking up the iPhone or powering it up from a cold start is fast and getting to the page is only two or so taps away. The slow part will be downloading the content if on the EVDO network, but for the most part that’s not too bad. Plus it’s easy to flick through the content by sliding a finger up and down the page. And if the content is too small, it scales up nicely in landscape mode. Just flip the phone sideways.

Now wouldn’t it be cool if you could flick the page side to side to switch topics :-). (Probably would be too slow on an EVDO network, but it would be cool.)

I see from the “conversation tracker” for Microsoft developers that Windows Vista SP1 has made it to RTM (release to manufacturing). It’s the third entry in the list.

Mike Nash has more details here on the Windows Vista News blog.

What’s a developer to do when there’s hour after hour of red-carpeted SuperBowl pre-game shows? Code, of course. Well, kind of. This afternoon I started building up a database of Microsoft technology-focused developers-slash-bloggers for the conversation tracker service Bob and I have been working on. I got only as far as 74 entries, which is only a drop in the bucket. I have a couple hundred (my guesstimate at this time) of high-quality bloggers to add, so this is going to take awhile.

The micro-conversation among these bloggers though is beginning to reveal itself. Here’s a snapshot of what the first 74 bloggers were talking about this afternoon:

And scanning through this list I see that I need to decide if I’m going to sit in the hallways again at Mix or try to get in as a badged attendee. Scott Guthrie has more here.

It’s been long rumored and now it’s finally happened. Microsoft has made a public, unsolicited bid for Yahoo, which you can read in this Microsoft press release. This press release by Yahoo states that the company’s “Board of Directors will evaluate this proposal carefully and promptly in the context of Yahoo!’s strategic plans and pursue the best course of action to maximize long-term value for shareholders.” Of course they have to consider it; they have a fiduciary responsibility to consider offers like this.

This is a smart move, however, for both companies and employees and customers. And, yes, shareholders. But right now, I’m most interested in the customers, because that’s what’s going to benefit both companies in the long run.

In Microsoft’s press release, I think Steve Ballmer has it right, “We have great respect for Yahoo!, and together we can offer an increasingly exciting set of solutions for consumers, publishers and advertisers while becoming better positioned to compete in the online services market,” said Steve Ballmer, chief executive officer of Microsoft. “We believe our combination will deliver superior value to our respective shareholders and better choice and innovation to our customers and industry partners.”

It may sound like corporate PR talk, but this time around I think this positive positioning is correct. Here’s how I see it:

Microsoft needs some help in the web world. Try as they might, the company hasn’t been able to get its act together on par with what it can do and what customers would like to see and what its developers would like to see. It keeps getting biased by Windows and Office–which makes complete sense. They are, after all, hugely successful for Microsoft. But that’s not where the market opportunities end. And that’s where Yahoo comes in. Yahoo has for a long time been a fairly successful player in the online game. They have run into a rough spot and hence their stock has been going down and layoffs are on the way, but fundamentally they have some great web assets–Flickr being one of my most favorite. Microsoft can leverage its complementary assets–developer community, advertisers and the like to bring greater value to everyone.

Online, there’s money to be made with more and better ads. Yes, more money. But customers will benefit because properties, such as the Flickr image sharing service can expand to integrate into other offerings–particularly from Microsoft’s pool of products. And this model, which has worked for Yahoo can work in other areas two…if only Yahoo could invest more R&D. That’s where Microsoft comes in. It has the money chest to make new efforts happen. And with Yahoo it hopefully can share some of its bay area engineering magic.

Now there are some caveats here. With Yahoo’s slump I’m guessing some of the key engineering talent and know how has left. That may or may not be an issue. Yahoo also has a culture that’s more open cube-like than Microsoft’s “everyone gets a door” model. Structurally this may sound insignificant, but it’s turf like this that ruffles people’s feathers when change is on the way. Again, I hope in a Microsoft-Yahoo acquisition, that it won’t scare away the people you really want to see work together.

I hope also this could mean we’d see more ink in the web. Wouldn’t it be cool if Flickr supported ink directly for annotation? And if Yahoo could leverage Microsoft’s developer model and ecosystem there’s huge opportunity here. It’s things like this that have me excited as a developer and as a user.

Who knows if this kind of mega-acquisition will be OKed by the regulators. If it isn’t, maybe Yahaoo can get back on its feet, but then again I see clouds of Lycos on the horizon. Fingers crossed that the winds will keep them at bay.

Now if Microsoft would just buy twitter and integrate ink and media content there too I’d really be impressed.

There’s a bunch of coverage and commentary on this offer over at TechMeme. Well worth the read.

Rob Bushway posts a great overview of Microsoft Research’s clever, technology-placked note app, InkSeine. Nicely done.

Want to learn more about InkSeine? Check out Ken Hinckley’s (the creator of InkSeine) blog and join in his doodles.

Despite some interesting new products, there was a collective “huh?” rumbling across the blogosphere yesterday after Steve Jobs’ Macworld keynote. Why? Much for the same reason that many give Apple kudos for–the secrecy.

Here’s the thing. Apple has done so well delivering some innovative products over the last couple years, such as the iPhone, that people expect a lot from Apple. Lots more. In fact, they are ahead of the Apple curve in their thinking. Why? Because with all this secrecy Apple is unable to set expectations. And even if they did try to set things straight by leaking some details here and there, who would believe them? There’s so much fake leaked material racing across the Internet. It’s become a favorite 15-minute fame game. Who can Photoshop the most realistic Apple subnotebook? Who can list the specs of the as of yet next gen iPhone? The noise level is getting awfully high–and messy.

There were some differences this year though that may have played into this. It appears that many of the prime products mentioned in the keynote had been leaked before the official announcements–at least in part. We didn’t know the specifics, but we’d learned that there was to be a new thin, 13″ notebook. We had learned that Apple was going to rent out movies. We had learned that the iPhone was going to get a refresh.

Maybe it was partially the fact that these details were leaked that many started dreaming further. There was chatter about a Tablet Mac. There was talk about 3G and WiMax. There was talk about a sub-notebook. All of these would have been leading, ultra-cool products. But none were to be found, which created a deflating sigh of disappointment.

This is the problem with keeping things secret–or should I say semi-secret. People dream. And rarely can you surpass the expectations of those dreams.

Remember when Microsoft’s Origami was pre-announced via a sparsely worded website? People dreamed. And the dreams raced past what was to ultimately arrive.

Yes, there was a great spike of traffic at the time. There was a lot of news coverage and chatter. However, I’d argue it all led up to a collective sigh. It wasn’t that the product was bad. It was that people got ahead of it. That’s the challenge.

Yesterday there was chatter about a “leaked” list of feature requests for Windows 7. To me the list was ho-hum, except for maybe the IE suggestions. I think those were spot on. The browser has become such a critical app that it needs to be kept up to date in terms of how people want to use it and how well it works. A couple huge suggestions I have for the browser team: improve “native” editing and get “ink”/vectors into the core of the renderer. There are many more features I’d add to the IE list too–working better on smaller displays is one. It’s definitely a work in progress in  my book.

There’s one tidbit in all this conversation that has me concerned though. Evidently Microsoft is thinking of shipping the next version of Windows in 2010. I’m floored by this. No way. At this point I don’t see Vista holding up very well in terms of the hardware trends over the next couple years. Something needs to give here.

To me, Vista hit the market at the wrong time. 1999 would have been a much better year. Point is, that just as Vista came out, hardware started trending down in “performance”–not up, which has been the usual trend. The difference? The mobile movement. As processor speeds have stalled, notebooks and other mobile devices have grown in market share–and are on the cusp of exploding even more. They care about power consumption. Common sense instant on. Always on connectivity. Always on communication. And it better just work out of the box.

(Where Vista did go right, however, is on the graphics side. It’s also a better OS overall–assuming you discount all the driver issues. It’s just that its mobility face is terribly lacking–just look at its bulk.)

I’m almost coming to the conclusion that the desktop-minded Vista is a deadend in terms of where to foster the next growth. I’m beginning to think that the next big OS is going to come not from migrating down–but from growing up. More specifically I’m beginning to think the next big OS may come from the phone world. Why? Because it has by its nature most of the fundamentals that mobility needs at the core. It may be better to build from there and move up rather than take the last 15 years of desktop legacy and shoehorn it into a 7×9 device or was that a 3×5 display or a 2″ display or….you get the point. Not that I’m predicting this at all–but just think if Google grows its Android into a full PC? Think of what this would mean.

Just as the number of phones may very well reach the “next billion” mark before PCs do, I’m thinking that collectively other small, trim, low-cost, mobile “computing” devices very well may too. I’m including devices like the XO here and the Eee PC as well as MIDs, connected music players, and on and on–and increasingly phones, such as the iPhone.

Aren’t all of these devices best kept in the embedded OS space? This was once true, but I see a convergence going on here. I see a convergence of user expectations in terms of how the devices work, how they communicate, how they share data and experiences. That’s what’s new. The next great OS will make these devices and features flourish.

I’d sum it up this way: Microsoft needs a mobile-minded OS solution sooner than later. One that can fit comfortably on a reasonably priced SSD. It has to. Today. The OS needs to keep me connected as I move around or as services fade in and out. Period. Today. The OS needs to run well on battery savvy hardware–that means hardware that’s minimalist–not much memory, not much processor umph, not much battery capacity. Today. The OS experience needs to be optimized and sensible for a variety of small displays. Today.

These are the kind of features I’d like to see in Windows 7’s to-do list. And yes, there are tons more. I’m sure Microsoft has its own must do list too. Whatever Microsoft decides though, I hope for its own sake it realizes that it needs to get its feet moving fast in terms of improving the mobile experience.

I realize time flies fast, but I just don’t see how waiting until 2010 to resolve some of these issues is going to work in the competitive world.

Maybe I just need a vacation. Hmm. Does a couple years here or there really matter? Nah, probably not. I need to charge my iPhone and take a trip. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Please, ignore this post.

Want to visit 28 cities in 7 states on a code trip? That’s what some Microsoft evangelists are up to. What are they going to do? It appears that it’s up to you.

Personally, I’m up for travelling more this next year. I have a  couple trips already planned for January and I’m eager to add to my list.

I’m not sure when the Code Trip is going to take place, but here are a couple ideas:

How about taking along a Surface Computer? I’d love to see one in action and give it a go. Further, what opportunities are there for developers and Surface Computers?

I’d love to share some Silverlight apps with other developers. Is there a way a non-Code Trip developer can get involved?

Also, take along some Robots. Robots always make a trip worthwhile!

Oh, and don’t forget live webcams, givaways, and munchies….and your Tablet PC!

When it comes to thinking creatively, this isn’t exactly what I want to hear from inside Microsoft (well technically this statement comes from outside Microsoft now):

“Bungie has long been built on creativity, originality and the freedom to pursue ideas. Microsoft agreed, and rather than stifle our imagination, they decided it was in both our best interests to unleash it.”

The rumors are true, Bungie–the division developing Halo–is leaving Microsoft.

Here’s Microsoft’s official announcement.

I doubt much will change for XBox gamers, but I do wonder what Bungie is thinking that they want to do. Develop for other platforms? Develop other types of games? Take bigger risks? Which ones? What exactly was Microsoft stifling? Is this an issue over multiple platforms? And if so, what about advertising possibilities? What might Microsoft be giving up?

Is Microsoft in a creativity slump? Maybe. But I’m still betting that there are many employees within Microsoft itself that are are as creative as ever. Should these creative groups be split out of Microsoft too? Which groups would you pick next to be “unleashed?”

Adobe is getting into the online Office game with the purchase of Buzzword. I haven’t had a chance to try out Buzzword yet, but I’m eager to give it a spin. I’m assuming it’s Flash based, which if successful, will twist the focus of browsers even more. To me, this is not only a warning bell to Microsoft’s Office group, but to IE and Silverlight.

Microsoft’s response to all the Browser Office services? Office Live Workspace, which allows you to sync and share files remotely with others. Think in terms of a Sharepoint service.

Unlike how Mary Jo Foley sees it, Microsoft’s move is no challenge to Google Apps or any of the other browser-based Office-style products. This is a companion service to Office which shares some of the feature points that these other products provide, however, having the same feature set does not build an equivalent or competitive service.

By this point I would have expected more from Microsoft, but it appears the company is caught up more in playing musical chairs with its product names than challenging itself technically. My hardcore developer friends would argue I’m being over the top here, which I am, but by now I simply expect to see more. It’s not there.

What types of things would I like to see? Really take it to the browser Office folks–give them a browser that does editing, does spell checking. For real. People are using “browsers” for editing. Make this top notch via IE. Force the others to follow. IE has been lagging for years and has given others, such as Adobe Flash, an opportunity to split the market in their favor. The challenge is to not let this happen again and it’s not simply for competitive reasons–it’s because as users of the web we need more capabilities. Not more browser extensions.

I also toss out a question to Microsoft’s Office group: Is a distinct, browser-based file sharing service really what people want? Isn’t the best model a transparent one? Isn’t a data/doc stream that works behind the scenes even better? Why does the user want to go to a browser to get their files? I can see it as a fallback, but is that really the most efficient way of doing things considering the user is already within Office and supposedly Vista? And where’s the API that leverages the developer ecosystem? Wouldn’t that be something???

In a wrap up, this is the trend I see–whereas C# went after Java (a non-threat if you ask me), it sliced up VB pretty well. Fine with me. (The damage the misguided focus did to C++, I’m less accepting of.) And now, in response to browser-based Office-like products, Microsoft is slicing up its own Sharepoint market. Again, fine by me. However, fundamentally, haven’t each of these products missed the real boat? I think so. The world is voting with its fingers.

Oh, and one more last thing to remember: Just because Microsoft or any company for that matter releases product XYZ, it may not be a game changer, but it can make a lot of incremental market sense. That’s where I see this new Office Live Workspace idea. It’s incremental. There’s nothing terrible about that. Makes lots of business sense. And at the end of the day, that’s what it’s all about. As a user though, I still want more.

Update: Dave Winer also blogs about the relationship between Office and IE. I see there still being an opportunity for Microsoft, however. To fix authoring within IE. If they did, it could change a lot. It could devalue the Office clone/browser gold rush. It might in turn knock some wind out of Office proper, however, that’s going to happen anyway. Better to change the sail yourself rather than let others do it for you. There’s been lots of press print talking about how Microsoft has changed its direction, but frankly, it looks to be only a few degrees here and there.