Incremental Blogger

The Linux crowd of UMPCs is growing. Everex is to sell a 7″ UMPC with an ASUS Eee-like keyboard and form-factor.  A couple of differences? A 1.2GHz Via processor, 30GB harddrive, and built-in touch. A developer version should be available for $400 around the first part of January.

I imagine this device will run XP just fine and it’ll be interesting to see if Vista is friendly to it. We’ll have to see.

Is anyone else thinking that these devices are making the current generation of UMPCs overpriced? Yep, me too.

What I find so fascinating about the discussion around the recently released Amazon Kindle book reader and devices like the iPhone is that people are generally open to the slate form factor….and touch.

This is a trend that I hope Tablet designers are paying attention to. Why? Because for the most part over the last couple years it appears that the Tablet PC designers and marketers have resolved that the slate form factor (for the most part) wasn’t where the majority of the market potential was and “convertibles” were the “right” form factor, I think they got it wrong and these new devices are going to be teaching them a lesson.

Microsoft had it right with its prototype orange Tablet PC and better yet with its Haiku UMPC design. Even NEC’s LitePad was a smart design–among others. Generally, the thinner, the better. The easier to use, the better. I’d also add the cheaper, the better. To me the OEMs and Tablet PC marketing has lead the Tablet PC to a nameless, homogeneous, fairly uninspired collection of notebooks.

I don’t simply want a better 1997 notebook. I want a better device for 2007. I want to be connected. I want to have instant access. I want to be able to share. I want to be able to interact. I want to be learn, express, explore, inspire, be inspired, make money, purchase things, and above all enjoy my life a little bit more, wherever I am.

Maybe I have to wait until 2017. We’ll see. But I’m confident that one day, we’ll look back and realize that this is exactly what technology has given us–or should I say we have given each other.

I love this quote that appeared in CNet from Jeff Bezos about Amazon’s new Kindle eBook reader:

“But even though the development of Kindle took three years, Bezos said, it still couldn’t be entirely perfect. “We never did figure out how to do virtual book signings,” he said. Nevertheless, the Amazon chief executive reiterated that the book is due for a 21st-century makeover. ”

Seems to me Amazon could still have book signings in person—if the device support ink.

Think UMPC cut in half with widgets.

Lora and I had another conversation today about CES. We’re thinking about another Tablet/UMPC PC Gathering.

Our first thought is to plan something like the last two years–at the hamburger place at the Aladdin. It’s less expensive than most places CES week and it gives people an opportunity to eat what they’d like. We may go with pay-your-own way again. Not sure.

Timewise, we’re thinking something on the first or second day–late afternoon. That way everyone can grab a bite to eat before going to other evening events and it won’t be too late in the week that people will miss it.

Over the last few years number wise we hit about 80 people or so at each previous CES gathering, so it makes sense to plan for this number again. As in the past, the crowd will probably be quite varied–including end-users, OEMs, resellers, press, analysts, and more.

This may be one of the most interesting Tablet gatherings at CES so far because the market has matured so much. Dell will have entered the market by then and who knows what new Tablet designs will be refreshed at CES, and just think of all the UMPC and MID designs that are popping up all over the place, as well as all the enthusiasm with touch–in part because of the Tablet/UMPC PC, but also because of devices like the iPhone and Microsoft Surface Computing initiative.

We’re still thinking though. Ideas?

This is very cool. Nokia demoed a touch feedback system for its onscreen keyboard.

The trick is a piezo sensor below the key area. ““The basic technology is not that difficult,” he explained [Roope Takala], “We inserted two small piezo sensor pads under the screen and engineered in a 0.1mm movement in the screen itself. What’s taken the time has been fine tuning the movement and response to mimic exactly the sensation of pressing a real key.”

Interestingly, the feedback doesn’t increase the speed of typing. “Funnily enough, although you think you’re typing faster than normal because of the feedback, in actual fact you’re not,” said Takala, “There’s just some sort of mental satisfaction that comes from typing with a tactile response.”

When might this technology reach the market: “The new Haptikos technology will apparently be shipped with the upcoming Nokia S60 Touch phone that has been shown off at recent demos, and the team is busy working on the next challenge, which is to provide exact tactile replicas for scrolling and draw/paint programs.”

[Found at Red Ferret Journal]

The market has taught us that the $500 UMPC isn’t going to be seen any time soon. I’m convinced after a year of watching the OEMs build UMPCs that that’s the way they want it to be. I can’t blame them a $700-$1500 device makes more money than a $500 one.

But that’s not where the markets want to be. Sorry folks. We’re talking $500 at the most. Maybe, just maybe someone will figure out how to build an inexpensive system that’s worthy of being purchased, but I don’t see this in the UMPC crowd. UMPCs are being marketed as mid-range notebooks. I don’t see the price changing.

There is discussion though around the OLPC and the ASUS Eee PC. These $300+ notebooks are getting a lot of attention. For good reason. They are challenging the pricing spreadsheets that everyone seems to be going after. There’s no reason that low cost notebooks can’t be made. And I add, that there’s no reason these devices couldn’t’ be full-fledged Tablets for maybe a hundred more. I have my fingers crossed that someone will figure out how to do it. And make money from it.

Now in terms of the Tablet side, there is a problem At this point only Windows has the software support really needed, but unfortunately the price and the footprint are a problem–except maybe in terms of footprint XP would be OK. The price needs to be knocked down. If I were Microsoft I’d add an alternative shell that’s great for these form factors, knock of 50% for the price and let the market sing.

Crave is posting another Mac Tablet rumor. This time it supposedly someone from ASUS confirming the rumor.

First things first: ASUS is a contract manufacturer for Apple. So it would make sense that ASUS might build a Mac Tablet if one came to market. However, it would also make sense that ASUS would build an Mac Tablet that Apple is purely building as a research project. I think this is where previous rumors have gotten tripped up. Just because Apple builds something internal doesn’t mean it’s going to take it to market.

There are some differences now, however. Tablets are reaching across the market–whether they are called “Tablets” or not. There are now full sized Tablets convertibles, slates, very small Tablet convertibles, UPMCs, MIDs, and who knows what else Apple, Intel, or Microsoft have up their sleeve.

I can guess that a Mac Tablet will have it’s top notch pinch-touch displays. If so, I imagine the screen won’t be that large. Generally these are technologies that scale up slowly. So maybe a 5 or 7″ display?

At this size a slate makes sense with either the onscreen keyboard or a flip out one. I’m thinking MID here. Something that’s top notch at browsing the Internet and staying connected. The iPhone is jut a little too small for comfortable browsing. Everything a little bigger could make the device easier to use in more places. And it might become a good platform playing games. Or a Brainage knockoff. Dunno.

Then again–since this is all based on rumors–I can see Apple responding to all the education-focused Tablets. Toshiba, Fujitsu, Gateway are grabbing market share fairly well. And Dell is about to enter the fray too. That means Apple is the odd one out. So here, maybe they are thinking of an education-capable Tablet. Fact is Apple already has a reasonable foothold in the education market. Are Tablets eating at their market.

There are two concerns here if Apple takes this route. First, Apple products recently have been selling well to the consumer market–in which I’d include high-school age kids on up. I’m not sure what the IT folks think–and these are the ones in charge of the school infrastructure.

If Apple wants to ride its consumer wave, then an Apple education-capable Tablet would need to attract the older kids. So we’re talking maybe a small, Tablet convertible. Something that might even sell well in Asia. It would need enough umph though to play games and stay well connected. I’m not sure if they could pull this off and have the dreamed of 8hr battery life and so on. This would make more sense for a smaller device.

Anyway, like I mentioned at the beginning. These are all rumors. Rumors, rumors, rumors, that have all turned out to be false.

And it makes sense that the rumors are kicking up now that MacWorld is approaching in early Janurary 08.

Maybe we’ll see some leaked photos next. If so, I’ll really begin to believe.

Update: Ooops. I forgot one of the best features for an Apple MID–It could serve as a remote control with a live TV Guide built into it. It would be an  ideal companion for the Mini.

Everex, who just announced a $198 Linux desktop is also saying that they will offer a $300 notebook next year and on top of this has “plans to introduce other mobile devices like ultramobile PCs.” [PCWorld.com]

Could this be the first truly low-cost UMPC? I bet so. If it’s similar to these other systems, it very well may run Linux, which isn’t terrible, but it’s another signal that Microsoft doesn’t have an OS to offer–outside of XP–for these low-end systems.

I’m getting concerned for Microsoft here. It’s getting eaten alive on the influential prosumer end by OS X and its being gnawed at on the low end by these often mobile systems. There’s really no reason for this. Windows marketing has made a mess on the prosumer side with Vista–confusing its real value proposition: It IS a better version of Windows although the driver problem has been abysmal–and on the low end Microsoft has missed out on giving XP a fresh mobile look and offering it up as the resource Miser’s offering. Oh, how this all makes me twinge.

CNet has an article which seems to just now recognize the fact that the PC hardware market has gone through some massive changes over the last couple years. In the article Trouble on horizon for ‘white box’ PC makers, the author points out how there really aren’t any good ‘build your own’ options for notebook buyers. 100% correct. But it’s not because Intel and others haven’t tried to inspire this market. They have. They’ve tried working with the channel to bring about standard notebook components. But it hasn’t worked. Why? Because I think Intel and others have focused on lagging designs rather than the prosumer market. That’s where the action is.

Case in point: Any whitebook (build your own notebook) has to have good display options. Let me snap in a plain vanilla display or one with a digitizer. There has to be an upgrade path–not just here’s a display to snap in when you first build your unit or when you find a bad pixel or two. Simple swapping isn’t what people want.

Here’s another example: Battery life. Give me options. Some manufacturers do it right with swappable bays. A good whitebook has to be at least that clever.

Also: Thin is in. Give me two or three laptop case designs to pick or upgrade through. One has to be super thin. One has to be super expandable.

Another example: Connectivity. It better come with a new model for paying for WiMAX or EVDO or whatever. I want to build two or three whitebooks or at least migrate through a handful of machines. I don’t want to pay $60/per laptop.

And another lagging indicator: Where are the UMPC or MID whitebooks. Don’t these make a ton of sense? At least the UMPCs are fairly bulky. Don’t tell me the platform couldn’t be more flexible. Want capacitive touch for the display? Swap it out. Want an active digitizer? Or EVDO? Or a Flash drive I can upgrade as the prices drop. With a stock motherboard, can you imagine the variety of case designs people might buy and try? First a swivel case, then a slate design, then a miniature looking notebook.

Isn’t this all obvious? It is. But I think the market convinced itself that the prosumer market wasn’t interested. It is. But the prosumer market is going to go where the value is–and right now that’s Apple and its closed systems.

One more point–about dollars and cents. I think the mainstream notebook makers are ripping the market off right now. For the most part the notebooks are holding margins and I don’t think they want to see whitebooks and the market drop. That’s why it should.

Intel has had it right to try to inspire the whitebook market. Where they went wrong is trying to build boring designs. That’s where the low end of the market is. And that’s where it’s all about price. I’m hoping as Apple kicks everyone’s butt over the next year, that Intel and others will figure this out.

It’s so cool to see all the people trying out the inkable Silverlight Search TIP. Just yesterday there were over 123 unique visitors (according to Google Analytics) sprinkled throughout the world.

Most visitors come from the US, then England/Europe, and then Asia. The distribution in the US is fairly uniform. It doesn’t appear to be centered around major tech centers, which suggests that a wide variety of people are trying it out. Most people appear to give it a go and then move on, but still, it’s exciting to see the numbers.

In terms of individual, heavy users many seem to come from China–and not just from one city, but several cities. That supprised me completely. I need to think more about what this means in terms of Tablet software.

My brother Layne stirs up the MID vs UMPC debate.

A couple of points: There are Tablet PC and UMPC evangelists at Microsoft. They just appear to be spread out. I think that happened naturally as more and more people within Microsoft adopted Tablet for their own use. But more so, there are some key people that believe just as strongly today about the Tablet PC as they ever have, such as Bert Keeley. There are many others.

Now in terms of Intel, I agree with commenter Chuck, Intel has been focusing on “downgraded” processors in large part to conserve power. Processor speeds have been going the wrong way for us Vista folks. If I understand the verbiage correctly from Intel’s Developer Forum (IDF) there will be faster processors down the road, but for now I’m not sure if Vista runs on the current generation. I’m a bit confused. Intel is promoting Ubuntu on these platforms and it looks to me like Vista may be “supported” later. I can’t quite tell. My guess is that XP would work fine, so I’m unsure why Intel didn’t show that. Either way, it’s going to take more than a few months to get Ubuntu up to mobile speed. I bet the same thing could be done to XP and would be a better overall product. How hard it is to bring in a new shell and fix a handful of overly large dialogs? I can guess why Microsoft wouldn’t be for this, but in light of the MID (sub-UMPC) market going Linux (courtesy of Intel) I don’t see that Microsoft has a choice. Windows CE isn’t going to cut it and Embedded isn’t either. These need to be full OS’s. That’s the beauty. That’s the innovation. Of course, if Microsoft doesn’t want to play along, I guess Intel had no other choice but to go with Linux.

Finally, Microsoft marketing takes a hit quite a bit of the time. They’ve tried, but the effort has been mediocre at best. I think it had a lot to do with marketing timing–not just marketing. When the Tablets first came out the hardware channel was changing significantly. The reseller channel lagged and was crippled by direct sales from the OEMs. And the OEMs had little insensitive to sell a niche product. Sure they would if the market pulled it through, but that wasn’t going to happen with all of the negative online commentary that occurred in large part not because of the Tablet per se, but the transition to notebooks. Centrino helped and now notebooks are more accepted and the Tablet would do much better today if it were released. I’m convinced if Tablet PCs were launched today you wouldn’t see endless Slashdot or Digg commentary about how heavy they are, how overpriced for its size, how the battery life is too short—because ALL of these issues impact ALL notebooks. People understand the issues better. Now that being said, most Tablets and UMPCs are still overpriced to me, but that’s just me.

Oh, and one more thing, I do shed a tear each time I see an iPod Nano commercial on TV. That could have been a Tablet PC or UMPC commercial.

Over the last couple weeks I’ve been talking more about the idea of handwriting search engine queries–and particularly about leveraging handwriting to ease the process of entering complicated text queries, such as math problems.

You can try out the Silverlight app at www.TabletPCPost.com/search and www.TabletPCPost.com/math for yourself if you haven’t done so yet. It lets you handwrite queries within the browser (using a stylus or a mouse or other pointing device) and then recognizes your handwriting on a remote server and then sends off the recognition results to Google when you’re ready.

Supporting handwriting in a search engine may seem esoteric, but the idea gets really interesting when you look how it could enable a wider variety of queries, such as math or physics or chemistry problems. Here the idea is to facilitate more “query types” that often are seeking more help or particular answers than “search” per se. By supporting these additional query types, the search engine expands its notion of being an authority source. If you want to know about xyz, go here is the idea.

Anyway, so here is a mockup of one way that I could see handwritten queries integrated into Google or Live or whatever search engine. One way is to offer a landing page which is 100% designed for ink. Another is to provide an integrated approach which does not get in the way of the majority of text users.

So let’s say at Google.com or the academic search version that Google provided a small pen icon like this:

Tap on the pen button and the default text field could collapse and an alternate inkable surface appears:

The user then could handwrite their query in the panel with the recognized text being returned from a remote server:

Once the query is properly formulated, the user presses the Search button and gets their search results.

To get back to the default text field they could refresh the page or tap on the text icon.

Handwritten queries make even more sense where it can be tedious and error prone to enter the queries textually. Take math problems, for instance:

And now think about an answer engine that shelves your handwritten “queries” for access later. Makes quite a bit of sense with ink since the queries can become very complicated. And think about other problem types. Imagine a query that returns interactive plots. Formatted and publishable diagrams. And on and on. Can you also imagine how this could be a nice entry point for a partner infrastructure? I can. I’m getting ahead of myself.

Of course, there’s no doubt that integrating in a Silverlight or Flash panel to a heavily used query page is going to increase the page loads for more people than will actually use it. But then again, as more and more answer services are integrated into the search engine this ratio could change. Initially non-integrated handwritten queries probably make the most sense, followed by certain query pages–such as those for students, engineers, or other specific markets.

If you’d like to comment on this idea you can do so on my other blog here.

In a TGDaily interview with Intel’s vice president and general manager of their Mobile Platforms Group, Mooly Eden, we learn more about Intel’s MID versus UMPC strategy:

TG Daily: We have been wondering at TG Daily, is the MID what the UMPC should’ve been in the first place?Mooly Eden: I believe all of it was evangelism. We look at new opportunities as we learned, as we looked at it. When we start developing this stuff, and a lot of it, by the way, is the same, we’ll find out that, when we start talking about UMPC [ultra-mobile PC], the market is not huge. But we thought it was a market we needed to serve.

Do you agree? I don’t. I think he’s talking about the current implementations not being as good as what a large number of people would like. The same truth is going to hit the MID market. You can’t just squish a browser into a MID device and call it good—or better. That’s not the secret sauce.

And to believe the a Linux distro can step, be modified to be more mobile friendly, whereas Windows can’t, I think isn’t right either. Maybe Microsoft doesn’t want to fix Windows proper. That may be. However, there’s no doubt in my mind that as a consumer I’d pick a Windows platform over a Linux one assuming they both have a rich user experience. Take away a good user experience in one platform and not the other, then that settles it–I’d pick the better user experience. I just don’t buy the argument that any OS can’t be structured to provide a good mobile experience.

The platform from Intel is critical. It needs to provide a strong base. Given that, the software is an extremely critical component. Is it extensible? Does it have a active ecosystem that I can go to as a developer to seek help when needed? Does it “scale” in the sense that things I do today will be easily adaptable to tomorrow’s hardware and OS? These are the things I think of. Linux per se isn’t going to be the answer–no more so that Windows was going to be for the UMPC. As a consumer I want to see a good user experience. Will developers of Ubuntu deliver? I don’t know. That’s the key. That’s what was missing in Intel’s presentations. It’s not just a matter of the form factor with some OS placed on top.